[Niki]

Really great points, Aaron!

[Niki]

Great topic!

I think of Pharm as the overall probability (P1 x P2). This is the same as P value – so in the instances where you don’t see P1 and P2 separately, that’s likely the approach. So, if you mitigate P1 to near 0, pharm will be reduced to the same. But they are not equal.

In my experience, technical mitigations can lower P1 – probably that the hazardous event will occur, but typically leave P2 – probability that hazardous situation will lead to harm – unchanged. This is because once we get to the “hazardous situation” the harm is as likely to occur as it was when P1 was higher. But, if you can change the clinical workflow (maybe adding detections, alarms, workflow safeguards), then you can reduce the probability of P2.

I might have gotten off track lol. But to circle back, I think you could consider the risk score as:

Risk score = P x S, where P is Pharm = (P1 x P2)

[Niki]

I can’t wait for this event!